Is AI climbing the “peak of inflated expectations?"

Bob Whitesel Aug. 10, 2025

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Have you wondered why creative leaders often burn brightly, but then burn out?

To better understand creative minds, it's important to understand how their ideas take time to catch on. Innovation researchers know new ideas go through a "hype cycle."

When innovation hurts: why church innovators keep getting disappointed

Initially, new ideas are met with interest and excitement. But this is also accompanied by "inflated expectations." And, when a creative leader's new ideas don't meet expectations, there's usually a severe drop-off in enthusiasm and interest. For the creative leader, this "trough of disillusionment" usually creates severe disappointment … unless the leader understands that a trough of disillusionment is normal and part of the creative process.

Here is how the process of adopting new ideas is depicted by Gartner in his popular hype cycle.

An example: Is AI climbing the peak of inflated expectations?

Today, it is important to consider how artificial intelligence is being accepted and hyped. Everyone is discussing AI. And, many leaders have reservations, especially in the church. They have seen church innovations adopted too quickly in the past, only to create division and eventually be discarded.

To better understand how to evaluate new ideas, leaders must understand the cycle through which new ideas climb, then fall, then slowly climb back toward productivity. The hype cycle can help leaders understand how new ideas develop. And, it's not as productive or as quick as anticipated.

How to separate God-given plans from trendy distractions.

Where do you think your ministry is today on the Gartner Hype Cycle?

Technology Trigger – Peak of Inflated Expectations – Trough of Disillusionment – Slope of Enlightenment – Plateau of Productivity?

A foresight leader will keep in mind that all new ideas go through a peak of inflated expectations and then a trough of disillusionment. Jesus used the imagery of seeing the future and forging ahead in his parable of a farmer keeping their hands on the plow rather than turning back when they encounter hard ground or difficult terrain (Luke 9:62). This holds a lesson for creative leaders and those who work with them. If the leader does not give up his or her passion for new ideas, it can lead to their eventual relevance and productivity, along with greater participation in the missio Dei.

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Bob Whitesel (D.Min., Ph.D.) is a foresight coach, professor, and award-winning author of 14 books. For over 30 years, he has guided leaders and churches to pivot and engage what’s next. He holds two earned doctorates from Fuller Theological Seminary and teaches on leadership foresight, church health, and organizational change. His website is www.ChurchForesight.com. Learn More »

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